martes, diciembre 13, 2016

Fidel era inmortal hasta que se murió




La interdependencia económica de EEUU con China tiene un riesgo: en última instancia, esta interdependencia entre la teocracia plesbicitaria de EEUU y el comunismo neoliberal chino, depende de la capacidad militar de cada uno. Estados Unidos es claramente superior, pero la carrera armamentista tiene un techo como estrategia económica interna yanqui. Tocado ese techo, lo que queda es incorporar terceros actores que debiliten al enemigo.
Trump se abraza con Putin. Le reditúa electoralmente. Pero además esboza una estrategia geopolítica, habrá que ver si funciona. Tiene el toque de sutilidad compleja que Obama dejó como marca en la política exterior después de la era Bush. Y tiene la contrapartida de que puede hacer subir el precio del petróleo. Que arrastra el del resto de los commodities, especialmente los alimentarios. Lo cual puede repercutir en la Argentina como amortización de la suba de tasas de la Reserva Federal.

Luego de las elecciones, Trump llamó al gobierno de Taiwán: dejó en claro que el abrazo perónbalbinezco con Putin es también una estrategia para rodear a China, cuyas fronteras no son tan vulnerables como las de Estados Unidos con México, pero quizás si funciona la estrategia de Trump, lo sean.
Taiwán, Rusia y...debilitar a Corea del Sur para que el actual empate estratégico con la provincia china de Corea del Norte, sacuda el tablero. Es peligroso, pero inteligente. ¿O acaso si se van los marines de la frontera coreana los sureños correrán en masa a probar la filosofía Juche? Más bien es probable que sea al revés y que China se vea obligada a desplegar tropas, aumentar la ayuda a norcorea, tratar de contener la migración en el otro costado de la frontera, con la propia China y quizás, sacando cuentas y calculando gastos y beneficios, lo echen a patadas al gordito que heredó esa dictadura sin brillo, logros ni épica. También sería riesgoso y peligroso, pero la sola posibilidad ya generaría inquietud en los generales chinos, que últimamemente se dedican más al estudio del management que al de Sun Tzu.
China, probablemente, contestará a este cerco con un troyano que arme programas espejo: fortaleciendo su relación con Latinoamérica.
Nicaragua, tan violentamente amarga, fue un primer ensayo. Por ahora, está bloqueada la posibilidad de abrir un canal que compita con el de Panamá, formalmente en manos de Panamá desde que EEUU devolvió las llaves sin chistar, como un caballero inglés y con tantos buenos modales que lo que se sospechaba terminó siendo cierto: los siguen manejando los marines yanquis. El comercio mundial daría un vuelco estratégico si los chinos construyeran el canal que una las dos grandes rutas marítimas a través de Nicaragua. El primer paso ya fue dado (el primer paso no es una licitación: entre camaradas no hay Estado de Derecho. El primer paso fue la habitual masacre de los pueblos originarios que hace unos miles de años tuvieron la mala idea de vivir donde se construirán las obras del canal).
Los chinos buscarán replicar su amor por África, con los mismos cumplidos románticos, en Latinoamérica.
Por un lado, tratando de ganar el control en las rutas del narcotráfico y el contrabando de armas que EEUU opera a través de México hacia Asia y China, hacia el aeropuerto de los BIRCS con destino a occidente. Por otro lado, es probable que aumente la radicación de empresas esclavistas chinas en Cuba, para defender los principios marxistas leninistas de la revolución cubana, que hoy necesitan jabón y arroz, porque la conciencia revolucionaria ya la tienen.
A EEUU no le conviene una diáspora cubana que lleve millones de hambrientos cubanos a Miami. Son hambrientos que hicieron el servicio militar obligatorio y tuvieron una notable educación en la disimulación de la ley. Miami, si Cuba "se abriera al mundo", no teme que los millones de refugiados que llegarían de la isla de la fantasía con Tatoo gritando "la balsa, la balsa", hagan una revolución en Miami. Sino que hagan una bella estructuran mafiosa copiando las enseñanzas celulares del sacrosanto Partido Comunista.
Es el origen de la mafia rusa -la diáspora de la KGB- y de los cárteles narcos en Latinoamérica, tras la diáspora de sendero luminoso en Perú y la reconversión de las FARC: de importadores de franquicias soviéticas a malandras de negocios multinacionales.
La estabilidad en Cuba también es la llave para evitar una diáspora a lo Siria en Venezuela, que afectaría a Colombia, Brasil, y Argentina especialmente, porque tiene educación y salud gratis,
Justo cuando Argentina y Brasil intentan volver al mundo con el entusiasmo de quien se coló en un cumpleaños de 15 que ya terminó.
Lo que pase en Cuba es importante, entonces, para Latinoamérica, China, Rusia, Estados Unidos. Y lo peor: a todos les conviene la continuidad de la gerontocracia, con los habituales toques de capitalismo salvaje pero represión, represión y represión sobre todo. Como la década del 30 en Alemania e Italia (y Argentina) nos enseñan, el capitalismo puede sobrevivir a la caída de la democracia. La democracia y los derechos humanos fueron la coartada para luchar contra el comunismo soviético. Con China, Vietnam y Rusia sumados al club del libremercado, la democracia es un obstáculo para la globalización y los derechos humanos arruinan la productividad laboral.
El único riesgo a la estabilidad del régimen en Cuba (además de la posibilidad de que los cubanos se harten) es el apoyo de Susanti Pancho, a quien como todo Papa le chupan un huevo la democracia y los derechos humanos: pero todo lo que Susanti apoya (y apoya la estabilidad cubana, por supuesto) sale mal. No es muy científica esta premisa pero hasta ahora, es así. Y además, al hablar del Vaticano siempre hay que apelar a hechicerías.
¿El saldo cultural de todo esto?
Peligra la democracia.
Está a salvo el capitalismo.
Los mejores alumnos del capitalismo (Rusia y China) no vienen preocupados por vender el sistema de castas con espejitos de colores, como Hollywood y Bollywood. Esa es una novedad que derriba las ilusiones de los noventa, tras la caída del Muro de Berlín.
Lo único previsible es que se seguirá bombardeando Musulmandia (esa convención de youtubers pasándola bomba), porque ya es un deporte de alcance planetario, como los Juegos Olímpicos o el Mundial de Rusia que ganará la Argentina. Porque volvió al mundo y porque tiene a Messi. Bah, porque tiene a Messi y porque ahora Rusia también es "el mundo".


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